{"id":2803,"date":"2021-10-27T09:29:03","date_gmt":"2021-10-27T02:29:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/star-am.com\/?p=2803"},"modified":"2023-08-21T10:26:10","modified_gmt":"2023-08-21T10:26:10","slug":"star-insight-market-update-18-oktober-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/star-am.com\/en\/2021\/10\/27\/star-insight-market-update-18-oktober-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"STAR Insight, Market Update 18 October 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container gradient-container-1 nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1248px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_3 1_3 fusion-flex-column fusion-flex-align-self-flex-start\" style=\"--awb-padding-bottom:2px;--awb-bg-image:url(&#039;https:\/\/star-am.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/20210823-STAR-Insight-Tabel.jpg&#039;);--awb-bg-blend:exclusion;--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:33.333333333333%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:5.76%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:0px;--awb-spacing-left-large:5.76%;--awb-width-medium:33.333333333333%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:5.76%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:5.76%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-space-evenly fusion-content-layout-row fusion-content-nowrap fusion-column-has-bg-image\" data-bg-url=\"https:\/\/star-am.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/20210823-STAR-Insight-Tabel.jpg\"><div class=\"fusion-image-element\" style=\"--awb-caption-title-font-family:var(--h2_typography-font-family);--awb-caption-title-font-weight:var(--h2_typography-font-weight);--awb-caption-title-font-style:var(--h2_typography-font-style);--awb-caption-title-size:var(--h2_typography-font-size);--awb-caption-title-transform:var(--h2_typography-text-transform);--awb-caption-title-line-height:var(--h2_typography-line-height);--awb-caption-title-letter-spacing:var(--h2_typography-letter-spacing);\"><span class=\"fusion-imageframe imageframe-none imageframe-1 hover-type-none\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/star-am.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/20211011-STAR-Insight-Tabel.jpg\" alt class=\"img-responsive\"\/><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-1 fusion_builder_column_2_3 2_3 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:66.666666666667%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:2.88%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:2.88%;--awb-width-medium:66.666666666667%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:2.88%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:2.88%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><p><b>JCI almost breaking the all-time high<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); color: var(--body_typography-color); font-family: var(--body_typography-font-family); font-size: var(--body_typography-font-size); font-style: var(--body_typography-font-style,normal); letter-spacing: var(--body_typography-letter-spacing);\"><b>Despite high inflation, US equity, and bond increased <\/b><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); color: var(--body_typography-color); font-family: var(--body_typography-font-family); font-size: var(--body_typography-font-size); font-style: var(--body_typography-font-style,normal); letter-spacing: var(--body_typography-letter-spacing);\"><b>Indonesia recovery on the way with CA will likely positive <\/b><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); color: var(--body_typography-color); font-family: var(--body_typography-font-family); font-size: var(--body_typography-font-size); font-style: var(--body_typography-font-style,normal); letter-spacing: var(--body_typography-letter-spacing);\"><b>Old economy stocks lead JCI performance<br \/>\n<\/b><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); color: var(--body_typography-color); font-family: var(--body_typography-font-family); font-size: var(--body_typography-font-size); font-style: var(--body_typography-font-style,normal); letter-spacing: var(--body_typography-letter-spacing);\"><b>U.S. equity and bond rise despite higher than expected inflation<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">U.S. CPI is increasing 0.4% MoM in Sep\u201921, higher than market expectation of 0.3% MoM. Sep\u201921 inflation reached 5.4% YoY (vs. consensus: 5.3%), significantly higher than The Fed long-term inflation guidance at 2.0%. However, PPI is below expectation in Sep\u201921, increasing by 0.5% MoM (8.6% YoY), lower than market expectation of 0.6% MoM (8.7% YoY). S&amp;P500 and Dow Jones were up by 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively, last week. The materials sector led the positive performance of S&amp;P500 with a 3.64% increase, followed by consumer discretionary, and real estate sectors which booked 3.55%, and 3.52% gains, respectively. US Dollar Index was moving downward last week, decreased by 1.04%, while 10Y treasury yield is decreasing by 4.15bps to 1.57%. The positive sentiments may<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); color: var(--body_typography-color); font-family: var(--body_typography-font-family); font-size: var(--body_typography-font-size); font-style: var(--body_typography-font-style,normal); letter-spacing: var(--body_typography-letter-spacing);\"><b>Indonesia may book the first CA surplus after 10 years.<\/b><\/span><b><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); color: var(--body_typography-color); font-family: var(--body_typography-font-family); font-size: var(--body_typography-font-size); font-style: var(--body_typography-font-style,normal); letter-spacing: var(--body_typography-letter-spacing);\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The market was reacting negatively after the announcement of Indonesia\u2019s Sep\u201921 trade balance last Friday. JCI rally was halted after the trade data announcement. The trade surplus was recorded at US$4.37bn in Sep\u201921, higher than the market expectation of US$3.87bn. However, this high surplus came from weak imports, while exports came in lower than market expectations. BPS reported that Indonesian export grew 47.6% YoY in Sep\u201921, lower than the market expectation of 51.3% YoY growth. We note that today, the Bloomberg quotes trade data revision from BPS with higher export growth of 63.6% YoY for Sep\u201921 and a higher trade surplus of US$4.75bn (Fig. 1). With these strong trade data, the market is now expecting Indonesia\u2019s Current Account surplus in 3Q21, the first surplus after 10 years.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); color: var(--body_typography-color); font-family: var(--body_typography-font-family); font-size: var(--body_typography-font-size); font-style: var(--body_typography-font-style,normal); letter-spacing: var(--body_typography-letter-spacing);\"><b>Old economy stocks still lead JCI performance<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">JCI recorded strong performance with a 2.3% gain last week, almost reaching its all-time high record of 6,693 recorded on Feb\u201918. Basic materials (4.25%) and consumer non-cyclical (+3.09%) sectors lead the positive performance. Last week, foreign investors recorded a net buy of Rp5.1tn in the regular market, lower than the Rp10.3tn net inflow in the previous week. Last week, foreigners were collecting BBRI (Rp2.0tn), BMRI (Rp0.89tn), and ASII (Rp0.59tn). With better than expected trade data, we expect JCI to further increase this week, supported by proxies of Indonesia\u2019s economic recovery, the banking and consumer sectors.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Indonesia&#8217;s 10Y government bond yield decreased by 14.6bps last week, allowing the spread to US 10Y Treasury yield to narrow further to 4.51%. Strong trade data and stable Rupiah will attract foreign investors to the Indonesia bond market, in our view. We note that last week, foreigners booked an outflow of approximately Rp3tn from the Indonesian government bond market.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-2 fusion-flex-container gradient-container-2 nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1248px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-2 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-padding-top:1px;--awb-padding-bottom:1207px;--awb-bg-image:url(&#039;https:\/\/star-am.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/20211011-STAR-Insight-Hal-2-scaled.jpg&#039;);--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:0px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column fusion-empty-column-bg-image fusion-column-has-bg-image\" data-bg-url=\"https:\/\/star-am.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/20211011-STAR-Insight-Hal-2-scaled.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"fusion-empty-dims-img-placeholder fusion-no-large-visibility\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1619,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - 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