{"id":3316,"date":"2023-03-27T09:14:19","date_gmt":"2023-03-27T02:14:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/star-am.com\/?p=3316"},"modified":"2023-08-21T07:53:23","modified_gmt":"2023-08-21T07:53:23","slug":"star-insight-market-update-27-mar-23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/star-am.com\/id\/2023\/03\/27\/star-insight-market-update-27-mar-23\/","title":{"rendered":"STAR Insight, Market Update 27 Maret 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sentimen The Fed Tahan Suku Bunga, S&P 500 naik 1.4%<\/b><\/p>\n

Pasar saham Amerika Serikat S&P 500 ditutup naik sebanyak 1.4% sepanjang perdagangan pekan lalu. Kenaikan ini seiring dengan harapan bahwa The Fed akan menunda kenaikan suku bunga merupakan sentimen yang lebih kuat dari ketakutan <\/span>investor atas sektor perbankan. Pada Rabu lalu, The Fed menaikkan suku bunga acuannya sebesar 25 basis poin (0.25%), sesuai <\/span>dengan ekspektasi konsensus. Pelaku pasar memprediksi The Fed akan menaikkan lagi 25 bps (0.25%) pada bulan Mei, <\/span>kemudian diperkirakan akan berhenti dan mempertahankan kisaran ini hingga akhir tahun. Dari komentar The Fed sendiri, <\/span>mereka mengatakan tidak ada pemangkasan suku bunga tahun ini. Meskipun demikian, data Fed Funds Futures menunjukkan <\/span>memprediksi kemungkinan sebesar 48.1% pada bulan Juli bahwa The Fed akan melakukan pemangkasan suku bunga sebesar 25 <\/span>bps. 9 dari 11 sektor S&P 500 ditutup hijau pada pekan lalu, dengan kenaikan terbesar pada sektor Communication Services <\/span>sebanyak +3.4%, dan sektor Energi sebanyak +2.29%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pinjaman Modal Kerja Melambat, Pinjaman Investasi Dorong Pertumbuhan Perbankan di Februari 2023<\/b><\/p>\n

Pertumbuhan pinjaman modal kerja di Indonesia mengalami perlambatan pada bulan Februari 2023. Pertumbuhan pinjaman secara sistem perbankan relatif datar dengan pertumbuhan 10.4% YoY dan 1% MoM, secara YTD mengalami penurunan <\/span>sebesar 0.6%. Pertumbuhan MoM didorong terutama oleh pinjaman investasi yang tumbuh sebesar 1.9% mom dan 11.8% yoy. <\/span>Namun, pinjaman modal kerja hanya tumbuh sebesar 10.1% yoy dan 0.7% mom dan mengalami penurunan sebesar 2.5% YTD. <\/span>Pertumbuhan pinjaman investasi didorong terutama oleh segmen manufaktur yang meningkat sebesar 23% YoY pada Februari <\/span>2023. Pelanggan ritel mulai memindahkan rekening tabungan mereka ke deposito berjangka. Total deposito tumbuh sebesar <\/span>9.1% yoy. Tabungan tumbuh sebesar 5% yoy, sedangkan deposito berjangka tumbuh sebesar 6% yoy. Pertumbuhan rekening <\/span>koran (CA) masih tertinggi di antara jenis-jenisnya, di 19% YoY. Suku bunga pinjaman terus tertinggal dari suku bunga deposito <\/span>sejak kenaikan suku bunga pada Agustus-22. Sejak itu, suku bunga pinjaman telah meningkat sebesar 40bps menjadi 9.34%, <\/span>sedangkan suku bunga deposito jangka pendek dan menengah telah meningkat masing-masing sebesar 125 bps dan 141 bps <\/span>menjadi masing-masing menjadi 4.14% dan 4.41%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Proyeksi IMF akan Pertumbuhan Indonesia; Bapanas Impor 500ribu Ton Beras<\/b><\/p>\n

Menurut proyeksi IMF, ekonomi Indonesia akan tetap kuat dan tumbuh sebesar 5% pada tahun 2023, lebih rendah dari realisasi tahun 2022 sebesar 5.3% yang didukung oleh harga tinggi untuk sebagian besar komoditas ekspor Indonesia. Pertumbuhan <\/span>ekonomi Indonesia ini didukung bersama dengan inflasi yang lebih rendah dari kebijakan moneter dan fiskal. IMF menilai <\/span>bahwa pemerintah Indonesia telah berhasil menekan defisit anggaran pada tahun 2022 di bawah 3% dari PDB, mencapai 2.4% <\/span>dari PDB. Dalam berita ekonomi lainnya, Badan Pangan Nasional (Bapanas) dikabarkan menugaskan Perum Bulog untuk <\/span>mengimpor tambahan 500 ribu ton beras, meskipun saat ini sedang berada di tengah musim panen padi. Impor ini ditujukan <\/span>untuk ketersediaan stok dan persiapan untuk perayaan Idul Fitri. Menurut Bapanas, tambahan pasokan beras akan digunakan <\/span>untuk stabilisasi pasokan dan harga beras, serta untuk bantuan beras bagi 21.35 juta keluarga penerima manfaat dan <\/span>kebutuhan lainnya. Namun, munculnya berita mengenai angka impor ini mendapat protes keras dari para petani.<\/span><\/p>\n

Key Takeaways:<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Pasar saham Amerika Serikat mengalami kenaikan sebesar 1.4% karena sentimen The Fed yang diperkirakan akan <\/span>menunda kenaikan suku bunga. Pada pekan lalu, The Fed <\/span>telah menaikkan suku bunga acuannya sebesar 25 basis poin. <\/span>Pasar memprediksi akan ada peningkatan sebesar 25 bps <\/span>pada bulan Mei, kemudian dipertahankan hingga akhir tahun. <\/span>Data Fed Funds Futures menunjukkan kemungkinan 48.1% <\/span>pada bulan Juli bahwa The Fed akan melakukan <\/span>pemangkasan suku bunga sebesar 25 bps. Pada pekan lalu, <\/span>sektor Communication Services dan sektor Energi <\/span>mencatatkan kenaikan terbesar masing-masing sebesar 3.4% <\/span>dan 2.29%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Untuk ekonomi dalam negeri, pertumbuhan pinjaman modal kerja di Indonesia mengalami perlambatan pada bulan <\/span>Februari 2023. Pertumbuhan MoM didorong terutama oleh <\/span>pinjaman investasi yang tumbuh sebesar 1.9% mom dan <\/span>11.8% yoy. Namun, pinjaman modal kerja hanya tumbuh <\/span>sebesar 10.1% yoy dan 0.7% mom. Pelanggan ritel mulai <\/span>memindahkan rekening tabungan mereka ke deposito <\/span>berjangka. Suku bunga pinjaman masih tertinggal dari suku <\/span>bunga deposito. Bapanas menugaskan Perum Bulog untuk <\/span>mengimpor tambahan 500 ribu ton beras, meskipun saat ini <\/span>sedang berada di tengah musim panen padi. Impor ini <\/span>ditujukan untuk ketersediaan stok dan persiapan untuk <\/span>perayaan Idul Fitri.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

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ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION<\/b><\/p>\n

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts\u2019 personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

DISCLAIMERS<\/b><\/p>\n

This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Contents in this research is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with, or independently research and verify, any information that you find on our report and wish to rely upon, whether for the pur-pose of making an investment decision or otherwise. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Surya Timur Alam Raya or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment or other business relationships with entities in this report.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1090,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSTAR Insight, Market Update 27 Maret 2023 - Star Asset Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/star-am.com\/id\/2023\/03\/27\/star-insight-market-update-27-mar-23\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"id_ID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"STAR Insight, Market Update 27 Maret 2023 - 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