{"id":3982,"date":"2023-09-04T15:37:02","date_gmt":"2023-09-04T08:37:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/star-am.com\/?p=3547"},"modified":"2023-12-13T09:36:02","modified_gmt":"2023-12-13T09:36:02","slug":"star-insight-market-update-4-september-23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/star-am.com\/id\/2023\/09\/04\/star-insight-market-update-4-september-23\/","title":{"rendered":"Keretakan Pasar Tenaga Kerja, Pasar Antisipasi The Fed Tahan Suku Bunga"},"content":{"rendered":"

Keretakan Pasar Tenaga Kerja, Pasar Antisipasi The Fed Tahan Suku Bunga<\/b><\/p>\n

Pasar saham Amerika Serikat S&P 500 ditutup naik sebanyak 2.5% sepanjang perdagangan pekan lalu. Sentimen positif berasal dari data ekonomi tentang pasar tenaga kerja akan menjadi instrumental dalam membentuk keputusan kebijakan moneter The <\/span>Fed. Survei Pembukaan Lowongan Kerja dan Turnover Tenaga Kerja (JOLTS) pada bulan Juli menunjukkan lowongan kerja turun <\/span>dibawah 9 juta untuk pertama kalinya sejak Maret 2021. Sedangkan laporan nonfarm payrolls menunjukkan peningkatan <\/span>tingkat pengangguran. Indikator ini menunjukkan perlambatan ekonomi, memperkuat harapan bahwa ini akan cukup bagi bank <\/span>sentral untuk mempertahankan suku bunga stabil. Menurut CME FedWatch Tool, pelaku pasar memproyeksikan bahwa The <\/span>Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga pada pertemuan selanjutnya bulan ini, dengan probabilitas 93%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Suplai Uang (M2) Tumbuh 6.4% pada Bulan Juli<\/b><\/p>\n

Suplai uang di Indonesia, sering disebut sebagai M2, mengalami peningkatan kecil pada Juli 2023 ke level 6.4%, naik dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya di 6.1%. Kenaikan ini terutama disebabkan oleh peningkatan aset asing bersih (NFA) yang <\/span>tumbuh sebesar 9%, dibandingkan pertumbuhan 3% pada bulan sebelumnya. Kenaikan NFA ini disebabkan oleh investasi asing <\/span>bersih sebesar $0.6 miliar pada obligasi, dan $0.2 miliar pada pasar saham. Meskipun demikian, peningkatan NFA ini mungkin <\/span>tidak akan bertahan lama, karena investor asing menarik dana sebesar -US$1.7 miliar selama bulan Agustus. Di sisi lain, aset <\/span>domestik bersih (NDA) melambat ke 5.7%, turun dari bulan sebelumnya pada 7%, terutama disebabkan oleh penurunan operasi <\/span>pemerintah pusat, serta perlambatan pengeluaran pemerintah daerah.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pertumbuhan Kredit Membaik pada Bulan Juli <\/b><\/p>\n

Data sistem perbankan bulan Juli menunjukkan pertumbuhan kredit yang meningkat ke 8.5% YoY, lebih cepat dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya di 7.8% YoY. Pertumbuhan ini didorong oleh kenaikan kredit modal kerja pada 8.1% YoY dibandingkan bulan <\/span>sebelumnya pada 6.5% YoY. Untuk dana pihak ketiga, total deposit juga menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang lebih cepat di 7.2% <\/span>YoY, dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya di 6.4% YoY. Kenaikan ini didorong oleh penambahan dari sisi rekening koran pada 13% <\/span>YoY, dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya pada 9.5% YoY.<\/span><\/p>\n

Key Takeaways<\/b><\/p>\n

Pasar saham Amerika Serikat S&P 500 ditutup naik sebanyak 2.5% sepanjang perdagangan pekan lalu. <\/span>Sentimen positif berasal dari data ekonomi tentang <\/span>pasar tenaga kerja yang menunjukkan perlambatan <\/span>ekonomi, memperkuat harapan bahwa ini akan cukup <\/span>bagi bank sentral untuk mempertahankan suku bunga <\/span>stabil. Menurut CME FedWatch Tool, pelaku pasar <\/span>memproyeksikan bahwa The Fed akan <\/span>mempertahankan suku bunga pada pertemuan <\/span>selanjutnya bulan ini, dengan probabilitas 93%. <\/span><\/p>\n

Untuk ekonomi dalam negeri, suplai uang di Indonesia, <\/span>sering disebut sebagai M2, mengalami peningkatan <\/span>kecil pada Juli 2023 ke level 6.4%, naik dibandingkan <\/span>bulan sebelumnya di 6.1%. Kenaikan ini terutama <\/span>disebabkan oleh peningkatan aset asing bersih (NFA) <\/span>yang tumbuh sebesar 9%, dibandingkan pertumbuhan <\/span>3% pada bulan sebelumnya. Kenaikan NFA ini <\/span>disebabkan oleh investasi asing bersih sebesar $0.6 <\/span>miliar pada obligasi, dan $0.2 miliar pada pasar saham. <\/span><\/p>\n

Dalam berita ekonomi lainnya, data sistem perbankan <\/span>bulan Juli menunjukkan pertumbuhan kredit yang <\/span>meningkat ke 8.5% YoY, lebih cepat dibandingkan bulan <\/span>sebelumnya di 7.8% YoY. Pertumbuhan ini didorong <\/span>oleh kenaikan kredit modal kerja pada 8.1% YoY <\/span>dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya pada 6.5% YoY. Untuk <\/span>dana pihak ketiga, total deposit juga menunjukkan <\/span>pertumbuhan yang lebih cepat di 7.2% YoY, <\/span>dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya di 6.4% YoY. Kenaikan <\/span>ini didorong oleh penambahan dari sisi rekening koran <\/span>pada 13% YoY, dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya pada <\/span>9.5% YoY.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

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ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION<\/b><\/p>\n

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts\u2019 personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

DISCLAIMERS<\/b><\/p>\n

This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Contents in this research is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with, or independently research and verify, any information that you find on our report and wish to rely upon, whether for the pur-pose of making an investment decision or otherwise. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Surya Timur Alam Raya or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment or other business relationships with entities in this report.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4601,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-update"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nKeretakan Pasar Tenaga Kerja, Pasar Antisipasi The Fed Tahan Suku Bunga - Star Asset Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/star-am.com\/id\/2023\/09\/04\/star-insight-market-update-4-september-23\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"id_ID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Keretakan Pasar Tenaga Kerja, Pasar Antisipasi The Fed Tahan Suku Bunga - 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