{"id":4004,"date":"2023-09-14T03:35:38","date_gmt":"2023-09-14T03:35:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new-prod.star-am.com\/?p=4004"},"modified":"2023-12-13T09:33:09","modified_gmt":"2023-12-13T09:33:09","slug":"star-insight-market-update-11-september-23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/star-am.com\/id\/2023\/09\/14\/star-insight-market-update-11-september-23\/","title":{"rendered":"Pasar saham Amerika Serikat S&P 500 ditutup turun sebanyak -1.3% sepanjang perdagangan pekan sebelumnya"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Kenaikan Harga Minyak dan Data Ekonomi Mixed, Fed Masih Akan Hawkish<\/p><\/div>\n

Pasar saham Amerika Serikat S&P 500 ditutup turun sebanyak -1.3% sepanjang perdagangan pekan lalu. Kenaikan harga minyak dan data ekonomi yang mixed masih menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa The Fed akan menjaga suku bunga lebih tinggi dalam jangka waktu yang lebih lama. Lonjakan harga minyak dalam beberapa waktu lalu disebabkan oleh pemotongan produksi yang berlangsung lebih lama dari yang diharapkan oleh negara-negara produsen minyak utama seperti Arab Saudi dan Rusia. Selain itu, dari sisi ekonomi AS, klaim pengangguran masih menunjukkan penurunan selama 4 minggu berturut-turut, menjadi 216,000, jauh lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pasar pada 234,000. Menurut pelaku pasar, pasar tenaga kerja tidak melemah dengan cukup cepat, dan itu membuat Fed tetap hawkish. Dari sisi inflasi, menurut Presiden Federal Reserve Dallas, Lorie Logan, \u201cpenurunan inflasi dalam beberapa bulan terakhir adalah hal yang baik, namun inflasi yang lebih rendah bukan berarti inflasi yang sudah cukup rendah\u201d.<\/div>\n
Inflasi Agustus 3.27% YoY, Lebih Rendah dari Ekspektasi Konsensus<\/div>\n
Inflasi pada bulan Agustus tercatat sebesar 3.27% YoY, lebih rendah dibandingkan ekspektasi konsensus pada 3.34%. Secara bulanan, inflasi Agustus mengalami deflasi sebesar -0.02% dibandingkan bulan Juli. Deflasi bulanan ini disebabkan oleh harga kategori makanan, minuman, dan rokok, serta harga kategori energi yang lebih rendah. Penurunan ini terutama disebabkan oleh harga bawang merah yang turun 24.69% dari bulan sebelumnya, harga daging ayam broiler yang turun -5.1% dari bulan sebelumnya, serta harga telur ayam yang turun -2.87% dari bulan sebelumnya. Meskipun terdapat deflasi bulanan dalam kelompok makanan, inflasi harga beras masih tergolong tinggi pada 15% YoY. Hal ini dikarenakan dampak dari El Nino yang diperkirakan masih akan terjadi hingga kuarter pertama 2024. BPS memprediksi produksi beras akan mengalami defisit 0.77 juta ton pada Oktober 2023.<\/div>\n
Cadangan Devisa Turun USD 580 Juta<\/div>\n
Bank Indonesia melaporkan cadangan devisa pada bulan Agustus mengalami penurunan sebesar USD 580 juta, menjadi USD 137.1 miliar, atau setara dengan 6 bulan impor. Penurunan ini mencerminkan intervensi aktif BI untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar mata uang Rupiah. BI menyatakan akan menggunakan intervensi valuta asing daripada menaikkan suku bunga untuk mendukung Rupiah. Selain itu, juga terdapat tekanan dari arus keluar modal asing sebesar USD 1.32 miliar dari pasar saham, serta USD 0.54 dari pasar obligasi.<\/div>\n
Key Takeaways<\/div>\n
Pasar saham Amerika Serikat S&P 500 ditutup turun sebanyak -1.3% sepanjang perdagangan pekan lalu. Kenaikan harga minyak dan data ekonomi yang mixed masih menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa The Fed akan menjaga suku bunga lebih tinggi dalam jangka waktu yang lebih lama.<\/div>\n
Untuk ekonomi dalam negeri, inflasi pada bulan Agustus tercatat sebesar 3.27% YoY, lebih rendah dibandingkan ekspektasi konsensus pada 3.34%. Secara bulanan, inflasi Agustus mengalami deflasi sebesar -0.02% dibandingkan bulan Juli. Deflasi bulanan ini disebabkan oleh harga kategori makanan, minuman, dan rokok, serta harga kategori energi yang lebih rendah. Meskipun terdapat deflasi bulanan dalam kelompok makanan, inflasi harga beras masih tergolong tinggi pada 15% YoY. Hal ini dikarenakan dampak dari El Nino yang diperkirakan masih akan terjadi hingga kuarter pertama 2024. BPS memprediksi produksi beras akan mengalami defisit 0.77 juta ton pada Oktober 2023.<\/div>\n
Dalam berita ekonomi lainnya, Bank Indonesia melaporkan cadangan devisa pada bulan Agustus mengalami penurunan sebesar USD 580 juta, menjadi USD 137.1 miliar, atau setara dengan 6 bulan impor. Penurunan ini mencerminkan intervensi aktif BI untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar mata uang Rupiah. BI menyatakan akan menggunakan intervensi valuta asing daripada menaikkan suku bunga untuk mendukung Rupiah. Selain itu, juga terdapat tekanan dari arus keluar modal asing sebesar USD 1.32 miliar dari pasar saham, serta USD 0.54 dari pasar obligasi.<\/div>\n
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ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION<\/div>\n
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts\u2019 personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
DISCLAIMERS<\/div>\n
This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Contents in this research is intended to be used and must be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. You should take independent financial advice from a professional in connection with, or independently research and verify, any information that you find on our report and wish to rely upon, whether for the pur-pose of making an investment decision or otherwise. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Surya Timur Alam Raya or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment or other business relationships with entities in this report.<\/div>\n
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